A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
